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Bitcoin’s seasonality could spark a short-term bull run for crypto market

Bitcoin's seasonality could spark a short-term bull run for crypto market

The crypto market dropped below the $1 trillion cap once again, led by a decline in the leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) over the past few days, though a slight recovery in BTC price did happen, with a 2.26% rise in the past 24 hours. 

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin-adjusted SOPR chart (Spent Output Profit Ratio) is indicating that market participants are cashing out during bear market rallies to find a better entry position according to Glassnode data culminating at the end of August. Fear in the broader markets stoked by inflationary worries and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) aggressive posturing is leading to more forceful selling.

Bitcoin Adjusted SOPR. Source: Glassnode

Notably, BTC seasonality is indicating towards a negative September, although this has been followed by a historically green October, so far in September BTC is already down by 5%. If the seasonality of Bitcoin prices over the previous 9 years is any indication, then this concern could be resulting in a solid buying opportunity.

BTC monthly returns. Source:CoinGlass

Fundamentals grow

Meanwhile, as of September 8, BTC regained the $19,000 price with the relative strength index (RSI) indicating that a short-term gain could be in play for the world’s biggest cryptocurrency by market cap. 

Namely, the RSI is showing a bullish divergence, this occurs when the price of an underlying asset makes a lower low and the RSI indicator makes a higher high, which often points to a future bullish trend. 

BTC RSI on the daily chart. Source: TradingView

On the other hand, fear seems to be dominating the broader markets, as the energy crisis in Europe could potentially spill over into a banking and then global economic crisis. Despite the negativity, the short-term bullish run in BTC could happen, if history repeats itself.

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