With Bitcoin (BTC) still struggling to surpass and stay above the critical psychological price level of $60,000, experts foresee a possible breakout in the near future.
Notably, crypto analyst TradingShot suggested in a TradingView post on August 12 that Bitcoin is likely to reach $170,000 by early 2025.
According to his analysis, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has seen a significant decline over the past two weeks, leading to a critical test of the 50-week moving average (1W MA50), a key indicator that has only been tested once during a bull cycle.
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Despite the recent sharp drop, which triggered panic and widespread liquidations, this movement can be interpreted as a natural correction within an ongoing bull market, rather than a sign of impending doom.
Historical cycle analysis
Historically, Bitcoin has only tested this level once during a bull cycle, making it a significant support level. The recent drop below this level led to widespread panic and liquidations, as many feared it could signal the end of the bull market.
However, from a technical perspective, this drop can be seen as the market’s attempt to re-adjust and harmonize after what was an aggressive bull run up until March 2024.
The aggressive nature of this bull run can be attributed to several factors, including increased institutional interest, the broader adoption of Bitcoin as a reserve asset, and the anticipation of Bitcoin ETFs. These factors pushed Bitcoin’s price up rapidly, necessitating a correction to bring the market back in line with the historical trend.
In each of the past two cycles (2016 and 2020), Bitcoin’s price followed a similar trajectory post-halving, characterized by a prolonged consolidation phase followed by an aggressive upward trend.
Approximately 630 days after the cycle bottom, Bitcoin had reached just below its 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level. This pattern signifies a crucial period where Bitcoin begins to gain momentum, often leading to a parabolic rise.
Current cycle and the path forward to $170,000
In the current 2024 cycle, Bitcoin has followed a similar path but with a notable difference. The recent sharp drop tested the 1W MA50, a key support level that aligns with the retracement observed in previous cycles.
However, unlike past cycles where Bitcoin remained below the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at this stage, in 2024, Bitcoin has stayed just above it, indicating a more aggressive bullish momentum.
This more aggressive trend is crucial because it suggests that the current bull run might accelerate more quickly than previous ones.
If Bitcoin continues to follow the pattern from previous cycles, a substantial upward move can be anticipated, leading the price to reach the -0.618 Fibonacci extension by the middle of 2025. Historically, this level has marked the peak of Bitcoin’s price during previous cycles.
Analysts anticipate Bitcoin will intensify its rally, potentially surpassing $100,000 by early 2025. Following past cycles, the key level to watch is the -0.618 Fibonacci extension, which could drive Bitcoin to around $170,000.
As the market continues to adjust and correct, the long-term outlook remains strongly bullish, positioning Bitcoin for significant gains in the coming years.
Disclaimer: The content on this site should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When investing, your capital is at risk.
