Bitcoin (BTC) is trading in bear territory following a sharp correction, but from a broader perspective, the asset remains firmly in a bull market after hitting a record high of $108,000 in late January.
Now, key technical indicators suggest that the recent pullback may not signal the start of a prolonged downturn, but rather one of the most attractive buy opportunities in months.
Specifically, Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average (MA) is serving as a crucial support level, helping to sustain the broader bullish trend. At the same time, another critical indicator, the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, is showing notable strength, continuing to anchor Bitcoin firmly within bull cycle territory, according to TradingShot.
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Bitcoin’s 0.5 Fibonacci ‘Golden Rule’ remains intact
Over the past decade, Bitcoin’s corrections down to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level have repeatedly signaled healthy, systemic pullbacks rather than bear market entries. Historical data shows that every correction respecting this level, especially when combined with the 50-week MA support, was followed by a strong rally.
Since the August 2015 bear cycle bottom, the few instances where Bitcoin broke below the 0.5 Fib level either marked deep bear markets, such as in 2018 and 2022, or were triggered by extraordinary overreactions like the Libra-driven 2019 dip and the Musk rally correction in 2021 as noted by the analyst.
While Bitcoin’s sharp correction may have rattled short-term sentiment, the underlying technical structure suggests this pullback is yet another systemic correction—a buy signal rather than a bear market warning.
Unless Bitcoin decisively closes below both the 50-week MA and the 0.5 Fibonacci level, the broader bull cycle remains intact. The current setup strongly resembles the August 2024 low, which also provided one of the best entry points for long-term investors.
Diverging views: CryptoQuant’s warning of a bear market
However, not all analysts share the same optimism. In contrast to TradingShot’s bullish stance, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has issued a more cautious outlook, warning that Bitcoin’s bull cycle may already be over.
Ju cited a range of on-chain metrics signaling the onset of a bear market. According to Ki Young Ju, fresh liquidity is drying up, while new whales are offloading Bitcoin at lower price levels.
Moreover, ETF inflows have been negative for three consecutive weeks, further dampening investor sentiment.
BTC price analysis
At the press time, Bitcoin was trading at $82,833, down 3.2% in the past 24 hours. On the monthly chart, losses stand at 15%.
The bearish sentiment has also extended to cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs). According to a March 17 report by CoinShares, crypto ETPs saw outflows totaling $1.7 billion last week, marking the fifth consecutive week of capital withdrawals.
Specifically, Bitcoin products accounted for $978 million in outflows last week alone, bringing total Bitcoin outflows over the past five weeks to $5.4 billion.
That being said, despite the prevailing bearish sentiment, Bitcoin’s ability to hold above its key technical levels leaves room for optimism. Whether the market resumes its bullish trajectory or faces an extended consolidation phase will likely depend on how Bitcoin behaves around these crucial supports in the coming weeks.
Featured image via Shutterstock
