After days of trading sideways, XRP appears to be on the verge of a significant price move, even as broader market conditions remain uncertain.
In that line, the asset is approaching the final stages of an ABC correction pattern on the daily timeframe, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) nearing oversold territory, as observed by Dark Defender in a recent analysis.
“XRP is close to finalising the ABC correction pattern in the daily time frame, considering the lowest RSI figures. RSI is close to the oversold area.”
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Historically, such conditions have preceded strong rebounds, with potential upside targets ranging between $5 and $8.
XRP’s path to a breakout
Currently, XRP is holding key support between $1.88 and $1.91 and has been trading within a corrective structure, but signs of a bullish reversal are emerging.
The first upward wave could push the price toward $3, where a breakout would validate bullish momentum. If XRP successfully clears this level, the next major target aligns with $5.85, in line with Fibonacci projections.
Beyond this, the Elliott Wave formation could drive XRP significantly higher, with Wave 3 likely testing $5.85, while Wave 5 could mark the final leg of the rally, potentially sending the price toward $8 in an extended bullish phase.
XRP key levels to watch
XRP’s immediate support zone remains at $1.88 to $1.91. On the upside, resistance lies at $2.44, $2.99, and $5.85, with $2.99 acting as a crucial breakout confirmation level.
A sustained move above this range would strengthen the bullish outlook and increase the likelihood of XRP entering its next major uptrend.
Short-term risks persist despite bullish projections
Despite the bullish outlook, short-term risks remain, with technical and on-chain data pointing to a potential downside before a breakout materializes.
Ali Martinez noted that the asset is at risk of breaking below the critical $2 support level, with a potential drop to $1.60 if selling pressure intensifies. On-chain data further supports this caution, as large holders have offloaded over 370 million XRP in just four days, signaling a shift in sentiment.
The derivatives market data from CoinGlass also shows a slight bearish trend, with open interest declining by 1.11% and options volume plummeting by 37.71%, signaling reduced speculative activity.
At the same time, heavy long liquidations totaling $9.52 million in the past 24 hours indicate that bullish traders are being forced out of positions, adding to the downward pressure despite optimism surrounding a potential spot XRP ETF approval.
While long-to-short ratios remain skewed in favor of longs, the failure to sustain higher prices points to the current bearish sentiment in the XRP market.
Regulatory challenges continue to weigh on XRP’s outlook. While Coinbase, OpenSea, and Robinhood have seen SEC charges dropped, Ripple remains under legal scrutiny, creating uncertainty that has dampened investor confidence and stalled momentum.
XRP price analysis
At press time, XRP is trading at $2.23, down 17% on the weekly chart, as declining futures demand and prevailing bearish sentiment add to market uncertainty.
The asset’s short-term trajectory remains unclear, with its direction largely dependent on the approval of a spot XRP ETF and the resolution of Ripple’s ongoing SEC case.
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