While there have been multiple opportunities since the initial public offering (IPO) to make an investment in SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock that would have proven, by press time, profitable, buying exactly three months ago would have led to substantial losses.
Specifically, SPCX share price at press time in the September 16 pre-market stands at $144.83, while the equity recorded its highest closing price and its all-time high (ATH) on June 16.
A $10,000 investment made near the closing bell three months ago would have acquired SpaceX stock at $201.80, meaning it would have fallen 28.23% to $7,176.91 for a $2,823.09 loss.
Buying at the intraday and all-time high would have proven even more damaging for one’s portfolio. Indeed, SPCX peaked at $225.64, meaning that a $10,000 investment made at the price would have dropped by 35.81% to $6,418.63: a $3,581.37 loss.
When will $10,000 invested in SpaceX three months ago turn profitable?
Additionally, with Wall Street on average expecting SpaceX shares to climb to $222.94 within the next 12 months, traders who bought the equity near its highs appear to have only a slim chance of recovering their losses within the foreseeable future.
Meanwhile, looking ahead offers relatively little clarity regarding when and if a $10,000 SPCX stock investment made three months ago might turn profitable.
The first potential catalyst is expected already next week with the Starship Flight 14, which could, should it prove a success, bolster the bullish argument for the company. On the flip side, the SpaceX rocket launch could also fail, potentially strengthening selling pressure.
Simultaneously, it is possible the impact of the flight proves only marginal, considering much of the company’s positioning – including the figures presented in the S-1 filing – emphasizes its artificial intelligence (AI) business.
Under the circumstances and given the recent calls to slow down developments amidst claims that AI could trigger a mass extinction even for humanity, SpaceX investors could begin ignoring the rocket business and turn bearish on the company’s other aspects.
SpaceX stock bear case
Perhaps the most bearish outlook might have been published before the SPCX IPO, which assumed that, should the company achieve a ‘minimum viable product’ and little in terms of breakthroughs such as successful orbital data centers, it might see an equity drop to roughly $70.
Notably, Morningstar – the company behind the analysis – determined that such an outcome was the most plausible, with both the bearish scenario – which would see a price collapse to $40 – and the bullish scenario – with a price target near $160 – deemed highly unlikely.
SpaceX stock bull case
On the flip side, SpaceX stock suffers from no shortage of committed bulls. Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang famously likened investing in the SPCX IPO to buying Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Meta (NASDAQ: META), or Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL) early.
Lastly, Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale estimated that Elon Musk’s newer public company could skyrocket to $800 – and a $10 trillion market capitalization – by June 2027, giving at least hope to traders who made a $10,000 investment in the firm as it was trading close to its ATH.
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