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What banks predict for the stock market in 2024

What banks predict for the stock market in 2024

Between their sheer size, importance to the overall economy, influence on monetary policy, and over regional Federal Reserve Banks, major banks remain incredibly important players in both American and global markets.

Additionally, the veritable armies of experts and analysts they employ, as well as the wealth of information they can access that is hard to come by for regular investors, make their insights into what the stock market might do invaluable.

With these important factors in mind, Finbold decided to take a look into what U.S. banks believe 2024 has in store for the economy and where they are likely to invest their assets.

On January 3, 2024, the event-driven stock trader Gurgavin Chandhoke shared on X the overall principles each of the major banks believes will be relevant throughout this year.

Defensive but optimistic

Barclays has a preference for large-cap stocks and prefers value investing over growth investing. It appears averse to exposure to international sales while preferring exposure to real rates and quality while attempting to hedge itself against possible market shocks.

According to BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), investors are likely too hopeful about the possibility of rate cuts in 2024 and are likely to be disappointed, leading to possible market shocks. It is, however, optimistic about artificial intelligence (AI) and generally believes in the revenue resilience of the technology sector.

BNY Mellon (NYSE: BK) is also rather bullish on American stocks – particularly on the “Magnificent Seven” and the AI-focused parts of the technology sector. It generally sees the possibility that the current rally will broaden.

Goldman Sachs is another bank bullish on the AI boom and has a preference for companies with proven track records and for high dividend payers. 

Wells Fargo shares a similar stance, favoring large caps and being less optimistic about other firms. The bank also favors a defensive stance with investments in industrials, materials, and health care while avoiding sectors such as real estate.

UBS is also favorable toward quality companies and the tech sector and is keen to invest in emerging markets. The bank, however, sees the UK as the least preferred. 

A more adventurous outlook

Fidelity is a bit of an outlier as it shows a preference for mid-cap stocks and the S&P 500 index – but not for the “Magnificent Seven” – and warns that small-cap firms might still be facing significant challenges in 2024.

Unlike many other major institutions, Charles Schwab (NYSE: SCHW) is more bullish on international than on U.S. stocks and believes that the momentum of shares of major firms – including the “Magnificent Seven” – will depend on the pace of interest rate cuts. It does, however, see significant growth potential when it comes to AI stocks.

Citigroup (NYSE: C) also believes that the rally will continue into 2024 and warns investors they should track indicators such as the lower gold and copper ratio and higher credit spreads if they want to gauge if the landing will be soft or hard.

Plenty of room for caution in 2024

Despite the optimism surrounding both the stock and the crypto market, several major banks remain highly cautious about how 2024 might look for investors.

Deutsche Bank is generally neutral but notably overweight on consumer cyclicals and financials. Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) largely believes that international markets will disappoint, that the U.S. will be strong only in the second half of the year and that Japan might prove to be a leader when it comes to equities in 2024.

HSBC shares a similar view on Japan but points out that U.S. equities are likely to face challenges. Finally, JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) is generally cautious, foreseeing middling earnings growth, and warns that the current geopolitical instability is significantly impacting its stock outlook.

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Disclaimer: The content on this site should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When investing, your capital is at risk.

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